Mai 24

Three opponent checkers on the acepoint

We start with three similar positions and a bad distribution for the roller (441, 551, 661):

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  '  ' 2O  '  ' 1O |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 9

Position ID: BwAAEAMAAAAAAA Match ID: UQngAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.541 (Money: +0.541)
0.771 0.000 0.000 – 0.229 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.000
2. Double, take +1.095 +0.095
3. No double +0.598 -0.402
Proper cube action: Redouble, pass


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  ' 2O  '  '  ' 1O |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 11

Position ID: BwAAEAYAAAAAAA Match ID: UQngAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.265 (Money: +0.265)
0.632 0.000 0.000 – 0.368 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.422
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.578
3. No double +0.333 -0.089
Proper cube action: Redouble, take


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 2O  '  '  '  ' 1O |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 13

Position ID: BwAAEAwAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0.118
0.441 0.000 0.000 – 0.559 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double -0.062
2. Double, pass +1.000 +1.062
3. Double, take -0.594 -0.532
Proper cube action: No redouble, beaver (33.4%)


In the next three positions there is no checker on greens acepoint (632, 552, 652):

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O  '  ' 1O 1O  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 11

Position ID: BwAAoAgAAAAAAA Match ID: UQngAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.386 (Money: +0.386)
0.693 0.000 0.000 – 0.307 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.723
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.277
3. No double +0.485 -0.238
Proper cube action: Redouble, take


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  ' 2O  '  ' 1O  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 12

Position ID: BwAAIAYAAAAAAA Match ID: UQngAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.163 (Money: +0.163)
0.582 0.000 0.000 – 0.418 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.283
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.717
3. Double, take +0.190 -0.093
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (11.5%)


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O 1O  '  ' 1O  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 13

Position ID: BwAAIAoAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.059
0.529 0.000 0.000 – 0.471 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.178
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.822
3. Double, take -0.085 -0.263
Proper cube action: No redouble, beaver (24.3%)

Another three positions where the lowest checker is on the 3-point (333, 346, 355)

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  '  '  ' 3O  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 9

Position ID: BwAAwAEAAAAAAA Match ID: UQngAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.507 (Money: +0.507)
0.753 0.000 0.000 – 0.247 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.000
2. Double, take +1.034 +0.034
3. No double +0.615 -0.385
Proper cube action: Redouble, pass


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O  ' 1O 1O  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 13

Position ID: BwAAQAkAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.148
0.574 0.000 0.000 – 0.426 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.239
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.761
3. Double, take +0.023 -0.216
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (22.1%)


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  ' 2O  ' 1O  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 13

Position ID: BwAAQAYAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.049
0.524 0.000 0.000 – 0.476 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.128
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.872
3. Double, take -0.129 -0.257
Proper cube action: No redouble, beaver (22.8%)

Last but not least two even worse positions (444, 445):

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  '  ' 3O  '  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 12

Position ID: BwAAgAMAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.117
0.559 0.000 0.000 – 0.441 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.228
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.772
3. Double, take +0.035 -0.193
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (20.0%)


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  ' 1O 2O  '  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 13

Position ID: BwAAgAUAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.091
0.546 0.000 0.000 – 0.454 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.190
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.810
3. Double, take -0.059 -0.249
Proper cube action: No redouble, beaver (23.5%)
10 CL

ND

NR

D/R

433 0.486 0.581 0.593 0.949
442 0.508 0.603 0.615 0.992
532 0.553 0.617 0.621 1.103
541 0.554 0.618 0.622 1.105
622 0.383 0.448 0.477 0.712
631 0.558 0.633 0.645 1.093
11 CL

ND

NR

D/RD

443 0.354 0.429 0.475 0.617
533 0.340 0.351 0.408 0.573
542 0.420 0.504 0.530 0.797
551 0.265 0.268 0.330 0.413
632 0.386 0.441 0.480 0.703
641 0.392 0.437 0.486 0.689
12 CL

ND

NRD

D/RD

444 0.117 0.128 0.228 0.035
543 0.293 0.335 0.399 0.470
552 0.163 0.276 0.207 0.197
633 0.202 0.141 0.256 0.174
642 0.291 0.335 0.409 0.439
651 0.256 0.249 0.338 0.338
Legend
CL: cubeless
ND: no double
NR: no redouble
D: double
RD: redouble
Green:
redouble/take
Orange:
initial double/take
Red:
redouble/pass


Some conclusions

  • All positions with 9 or less pips (6 behind) are a redouble/pass.
  • Three positions with 10 pips (7 behind) are a redouble/pass (433, 442 and 622 are redouble/take).
  • All positions with 11 pips (8 behind) are a redouble/take.
  • Most positions with 12 pip (9 behind) are a redouble/take (552 and 633 are initial doubles, 444 is no double).
  • Most positions with 13 or more pips (10 behind) are a no double/beaver (643 is no double/take).

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