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Archive for März, 2008

One man back (1)

by ace on Mrz.28, 2008, under Backgammon, Where Gnu errs

This one is from Sticks forum, he published a consultation match (with Kit Woolsey) vs. Markowitz/O’Laughlin.

The score (after 12 games) is: kit&stick 11, ed&howard 13 (match to 19 points)

ed&howard on roll, cube decision?


+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| 3X 2X  ' 3X 2X 4X |   | 1O 1O  '  '  '  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
| 1X  '  ' 2O 2O 3O | 2 | 1O 2O  ' 1O  ' 2O |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: kit&stick 77, ed&howard 128
Position ID: N7cHACDYrsmgAA Match ID: UQlgArAAaAAA

• ed&howard doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.095)! [bad]

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.468 (Money: +0.480)
  0.760 0.036 0.000 – 0.240 0.075 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.712  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.288
3. Double, take +0.617 -0.095
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (24.8%)

 

Alert: double decision marked bad

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.499 (Money: +0.515)
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.878  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.122
3. No double +0.770 -0.108
Proper cube action: Redouble, take
Rollout details
  Win W g W bg   Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful
Player ed&howard owns 2-cube 0.768 0.048 0.000 - 0.232 0.070 0.000 +0.499 +0.770
Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.006 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.005 0.008
Player kit&stick owns 4-cube 0.791 0.055 0.000 - 0.209 0.071 0.000 +1.034 +0.878
Standard error 0.002 0.003 0.008 - 0.002 0.004 0.004 0.012 0.016
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
286 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1053754233 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

 

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