Mai 31

Guidelines

By ace Backgammon, Bearoffs No Comments »

 

2 vs 2 checkers (Chuck Bower)

  • If your opponent is off in 75% or more rolls it’s a redouble/pass.
  • If your opponent has more winning rolls (better distribution), it’s a redouble/pass
  • If you have more wining rolls, it’s always a take
  • If there is an identical distribution it’s only a take when you have proper redoubles after surviving opponents roll (not true for 43!)

3 vs 3 checkers (Achim Mueller)

(will follow)

 

General checker play (Kit Woolsey)

  • Taking one checker off with one die is almost always right
  • Taking one checker off with a combination of the dice is mostly right
  • Fill gaps (with an ace aim for the 4- or 1-point)
  • Play from the highest to the lowest stack

Wards adjusted pipcount (Jeff Ward, Walter Trice)

  • Start with both pipcounts
  • Add two pips for each extra checker
  • If there are more than two checkers at the acepoint. add two pips for each additional checker
  • If there are more than two checkers on the deucepoint add one pip for each additional checker
  • Substract one pip for each extra occupied homeboard point
  • Add half a pip for each checker in the outfield

Point of last take in low-wastage positions (Walter Trice)

  • -5, /7, down
  • /10, +1, up
  • switch at 62 
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Mai 29

3 vs 3 (basics)

By ace Backgammon, Bearoffs No Comments »

Checker distribution

We start with an easy example and compare a few positions with an equal pipcount of the player but with different checker distribution on one side:

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  ' 1X 1X  ' 1X  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 2O  '  '  '  ' 1O |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 11, ace 13

Position ID: UgAAEAwAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.119
0.559 0.000 0.000 – 0.441 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.188
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.812
3. Double, take -0.097 -0.285
Proper cube action: No redouble, beaver (25.9%)

We now change the distribution of the green checkers:

CL ND NR D/RD
661 0.119 0.016 0.188 -0.097
553 0.265 0.266 0.359 0.325
544 0.299 0.346 0.413 0.445
643 0.351 0.402 0.456 0.580

We can see, that between the worst distribution 661 (no double/beaver) and the best 643 (redouble/take) is a cubless equity difference of 0.232 (0.351-0.119).

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   | 1X  '  ' 2X  '  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 2O  '  '  ' 1O  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 12, ace 14

Position ID: jAAAIAwAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.145
0.572 0.000 0.000 – 0.428 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.277
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.723
3. Double, take +0.191 -0.087
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (10.7%)

Again we change the distribution of the green checkers:

CL ND NR D/RD
662 0.145 0.208 0.277 0.191
644 0.242 0.323 0.372 0.394
554 0.248 0.337 0.381 0.408
653 0.294 0.401 0.431 0.525

Between the worst distribution (662) and the best (653) is a cubeless equity difference of 0.149.

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  '  ' 3O  '  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 12

Position ID: BwAAgAMAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.117
0.559 0.000 0.000 – 0.441 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.228
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.772
3. Double, take +0.035 -0.193
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (20.0%)

And again we’ll change the distribution of the green checkers:

CL ND NR D/RD
444 0.117 0.128 0.228 0.035
552 0.163 0.207 0.276 0.197
633 0.202 0.141 0.256 0.174
651 0.256 0.249 0.338 0.338
642 0.291 0.335 0.409 0.439
543 0.293 0.335 0.399 0.470
443 0.354 0.429 0.475 0.617

The cubeless equity difference between the worst (444) and the best distributions (443) is now 0.237.

Some conclusions:

  • It looks like the best distribution on three different points is “2-away” + “1-away”.On future pages I’ll call this “gd” (good distribution).
  • Next best seems to be 2 checkers on one point and the remaining checker “1-away” or three checkers in a row. This is also a gd.
  • The further away two checkers are, the worse a position is.
  • Two checkers on the same point with a distance of at least 3 to the third checker is just bad. I’ll call it “bd” (bad distribution).
  • Three checkers on the 4-, 5- or 6-points (no distribution) on greens side of the board is also a bd.
  • All checker distributions which don’t fall into category gd or bd are “ad” (average distribution).
  • The opponent usually needs doubles, so three checkers on one point doesn’t hurt him so much.
  • The cube position (centered or owned by the roller) usually doesn’t make a difference. There are only few “no redouble but initial double” positions.
Legend
CL: cubeless
ND: no double
NR: no redouble
D: double
RD: redouble
Green:
 redouble/take
Orange:
 initial double/take
Red:
 no double/beaver
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Mai 26

Vorsicht beim Deo-Einkauf

By ace Pol-IT No Comments »

 Wer in den Tagen vor Heiligendamm kosmetische oder Artikel für den täglichen Hygienebedarf benötigt, sollte besser nicht bei einer goßen und sehr bekannten Drogeriekette einkaufen. Wie der Spiegel berichtet, werden Fillialen des Marktes, dessen Stammsitz in Ulm ist, im Rahmen vorbeugender Maßnahmen von Fahndern des BKA ins Visier genommen.

 Im Zuge dieser neuen Großaktion werden außerdem "verdächtige" Briefe in Postverteilunsgzentren kontrolliert und Internet-Cafes überwacht. Die Kontrollen der Fillialen des Drogeriemarktes mit Hauptsitz in Ulm seien durchgeführt worden, weil "szeneverdächtige" Leute dort "bestimmte Dinge" einkaufen könnten, so ein Sprecher des BKA.

 Nach der "Schnüffelaktion " des BKAs wird mir nun eins klar. Die G-8 Gegner sollen am Geruch erkannt werden, wenn ihnen das Deo ausgeht!

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Mai 24

Sag mir wie Du surfst…

By ace Pol-IT No Comments »

 
…und ich sage Dir, wer Du bist. Wie der Newsticker Heise berichtet, arbeitet Microsoft zur Zeit an einem Programm, welches anhand  besuchter Webseiten und eingegeber Suchbegriffe in der Lage sein wird, persönliche Informationen des Nutzers vorherzusagen.

 Neben – zumindest für die meisten Menschen- unverfänglichen Informationen wie Alter und Geschlecht soll die Software auch Wohnort, Religionszugehörigkeit, Ausbildung und ausgeübten Beruf erkennen. Laut Microsoft solle dies auch funktionieren, wenn der Benutzer falsche Angaben mache, z.B. in einem Webformular. Das von chinesischen Forschern entwickelte Programm könne bereits jetzt mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von 79,9% das Geschlecht und 60,3% das Alter vorhersagen.

 Auch Google hat ähnliche Pläne, benötigt aber nach eigener Aussage mehr freiwillig herausgegebene persönliche Angaben des Benutzers. Der neugestartete Dienst iGoogle soll hier den Anfang machen. Mit iGoogle kann ein Benutzer seine Startseite und die Suchfunktion personalisieren und liefert Google somit weitere wertvolle Informationen.

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Mai 24

3 vs 3 (3 pips behind)

By ace Backgammon, Bearoffs No Comments »

Player on roll is 3 pips behind

In this section we take a look at positions where the player on roll is behind 3 pips. This is probably the most difficult chapter. I took two positions for a rollers pipcount of 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15 each. 

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  ' 1X  ' 1X 1X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  '  ' 1O 2O  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 7, ace 10
Position ID: JQAAwAIAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.529  
  0.765 0.000 0.000 – 0.235 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.000  
2. Double, take +1.037 +0.037
3. No double +0.639 -0.361
Proper cube action: Redouble, pass

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  ' 1X  ' 1X 1X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O  '  '  ' 2O  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 7, ace 10
Position ID: JQAAYAgAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.423  
  0.712 0.000 0.000 – 0.288 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.791  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.209
3. No double +0.520 -0.271
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

 

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  ' 1X 1X  ' 1X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  ' 2O  '  '  ' 1O |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 8, ace 11
Position ID: KQAAEAYAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.349  
  0.675 0.000 0.000 – 0.325 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.576  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.424
3. No double +0.417 -0.159
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  ' 2X 1X  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  ' 1O 1O  ' 1O  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 8, ace 11
Position ID: GgAAIAUAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.514  
  0.757 0.000 0.000 – 0.243 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.986  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.014
3. No double +0.625 -0.360
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

 

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  ' 3X  '  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  ' 1O 1O 1O  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 9, ace 12
Position ID: HAAAQAUAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.424  
  0.712 0.000 0.000 – 0.288 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.759  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.241
3. No double +0.527 -0.231
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  ' 1X 1X 1X  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  '  ' 3O  '  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 9, ace 12
Position ID: KgAAgAMAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.214  
  0.607 0.000 0.000 – 0.393 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.325  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.675
3. Double, take +0.245 -0.080
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (10.6%)

 

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  ' 2X  ' 1X  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O  ' 1O 1O  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 10, ace 13
Position ID: MgAAQAkAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.317  
  0.659 0.000 0.000 – 0.341 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.473  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.527
3. No double +0.416 -0.057
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  ' 1X  ' 1X 1X  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 2O  '  '  '  ' 1O |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 10, ace 13
Position ID: SgAAEAwAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.022  
  0.511 0.000 0.000 – 0.489 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.080  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.920
3. Double, take -0.345 -0.425
Proper cube action: No redouble, beaver (31.6%)

 

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  ' 2X  '  '  ' 1X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O 1O  ' 1O  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 11, ace 14
Position ID: YQAAQAoAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.314  
  0.657 0.000 0.000 – 0.343 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.552  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.448
3. No double +0.431 -0.121
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   | 1X  '  ' 1X 1X  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 2O  '  '  ' 1O  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 11, ace 14
Position ID: igAAIAwAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.032  
  0.516 0.000 0.000 – 0.484 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.127  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.873
3. Double, take -0.256 -0.382
Proper cube action: No redouble, beaver (30.5%)

 

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  ' 2X  '  ' 1X  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O 1O 1O  '  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 12, ace 15
Position ID: YgAAgAoAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.236  
  0.618 0.000 0.000 – 0.382 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.340  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.660
3. Double, take +0.320 -0.020
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (2.9%)

The position above is nonetheless an initial double. 

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  ' 1X 1X 1X  '  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 2O  '  ' 1O  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 12, ace 15
Position ID: VAAAQAwAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.051  
  0.526 0.000 0.000 – 0.474 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.141  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.859
3. Double, take -0.154 -0.296
Proper cube action: No redouble, beaver (25.6%)

 

Some conclusions:

  • 9 vs 6 pips is always a redouble/pass.
  • 10 vs 7 is usually a redouble/pass. Only if roller has a bd and his opponent has at least ad then it turns to a redouble/take.
  • 11 vs 8 is always a redouble/take.
  • 12 vs 9 is usually a redouble/take. Only if the roller has a bd and his opponent has at least a ad then it turns to a nodouble/take.
  • 13-10 covers everything in the range of redouble/take (gd vs ad) to no double/beaver (bd vs gd).
  • 14-11 covers everything in the range of redouble/take (gd vs ad) to no double/beaver (bd vs gd).
  • 15-12 covers everything in the range of initial double/take (gd vs. bd) to no double/beaver (bd vs gd).
  • 16-13 is always a no double.

 

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Mai 24

3 vs 3 (4 pips behind)

By ace Backgammon, Bearoffs No Comments »

Player on roll is 4 pips behind 

In this section we take a look at positions where the player on roll is behind 4 pips. Listed are positions from 10-6, 11-7, 12-8, 13-9, 14-10 and 15-11 pips.

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  ' 1X 1X 1X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  '  ' 2O  ' 1O  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 6, ace 10
Position ID: FQAAIAMAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.553  
  0.776 0.000 0.000 – 0.224 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.000  
2. Double, take +1.085 +0.085
3. No double +0.663 -0.337
Proper cube action: Redouble, pass

 

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  ' 1X 2X  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  ' 2O  '  '  ' 1O |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 7, ace 11
Position ID: FgAAEAYAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.305  
  0.652 0.000 0.000 – 0.348 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.496  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.504
3. No double +0.372 -0.124
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  ' 2X  ' 1X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  ' 1O 1O  ' 1O  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 7, ace 11
Position ID: GQAAIAUAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.505  
  0.753 0.000 0.000 – 0.247 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.975  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.025
3. No double +0.621 -0.354
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

 

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  ' 1X 1X  ' 1X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O  ' 1O  ' 1O  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 8, ace 12
Position ID: KQAAIAkAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.373  
  0.686 0.000 0.000 – 0.314 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.615  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.385
3. No double +0.496 -0.119
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  ' 2X 1X  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  ' 2O  '  ' 1O  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 8, ace 12
Position ID: GgAAIAYAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.252  
  0.626 0.000 0.000 – 0.374 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.367  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.633
3. Double, take +0.356 -0.011
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (1.7%)

 

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  ' 1X  ' 1X  ' 1X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O  ' 1O 1O  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 9, ace 13
Position ID: SQAAQAkAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.239  
  0.620 0.000 0.000 – 0.380 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.333  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.667
3. Double, take +0.246 -0.087
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (11.5%)

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  ' 2X  '  ' 1X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O  ' 1O 1O  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 9, ace 13
Position ID: MQAAQAkAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.305  
  0.652 0.000 0.000 – 0.348 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.450  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.550
3. No double +0.402 -0.049
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

 

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  ' 2X  ' 1X  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O 1O  ' 1O  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 10, ace 14
Position ID: MgAAQAoAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.174  
  0.587 0.000 0.000 – 0.413 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.266  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.734
3. Double, take +0.102 -0.164
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (18.2%)

 

 


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  ' 2X  '  '  ' 1X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O 1O 1O  '  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 11, ace 15
Position ID: YQAAgAoAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.179  
  0.590 0.000 0.000 – 0.410 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.280  
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.720
3. Double, take +0.222 -0.058
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (7.4%)

 

Some conclusions:

  • It looks like all positions with 10 or less pips at the rollers side are a redouble/pass.
  • All positions with 11-7 pips are a redouble/take.
  • With a pipcount of 12-8 I found only one position (552-332) which is no double/take. All others are a redouble/take.
  • Most positions with a pipcount of 13-9 are a no double/take. Only 643-441 and 643-333 are a redouble/take  because of the opponents bd (bad distribution).
  • Most positions with a pipcount of 14-10 are a no double/take. If the opponent has a gd (good checker distribution, i.e. 631) it’s yet a no double/beaver.  
  • Nearly all positions with 15-11 pips are a no double/beaver. Only 654-551 (bd for opponent!) is a no double take.
Tagged with: •
Mai 24

3 vs 3 (mirrors)

By ace Backgammon, Bearoffs No Comments »

Mirrored positions

In this part we’ll only cover positions where green and white have a mirrored position.

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   | 1X  '  '  ' 2X  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O  '  '  ' 2O  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 10, ace 10
Position ID: hgAAYAgAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.535
0.767 0.000 0.000 – 0.233 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.966
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.034
3. No double +0.621 -0.345
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

Position 622 looks like the only one with 10 pips which is a moneygame take. All other mirror positions (433, 442, 532, 541, 631) are a redouble/pass.

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  ' 1X  ' 2X  '  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  ' 1O  ' 2O  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 11, ace 11
Position ID: TAAAwAQAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.509
0.755 0.000 0.000 – 0.245 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.974
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.026
3. No double +0.601 -0.373
Proper cube action: Redouble, take


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   | 1X  '  ' 1X 1X  ' |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O  '  ' 1O 1O  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 11, ace 11
Position ID: igAAoAgAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.536
0.768 0.000 0.000 – 0.232 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +1.000
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.000
3. No double +0.627 -0.373
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

533 is the only redouble/take position at a pipcount of 11. 632 is a borderline take/pass. All other mirror positions (443, 542, 551, 641) are redouble/pass.

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   | 1X 1X  '  '  ' 1X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O 1O  '  '  ' 1O |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 12, ace 12
Position ID: oQAAEAoAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.539
0.770 0.000 0.000 – 0.230 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.000
2. Double, take +1.024 +0.024
3. No double +0.640 -0.360
Proper cube action: Redouble, pass

At a pipcount of 12
Position 651 is the only mirror position which is a redouble/pass. All others (444, 543, 552, 633, 642) are a redouble/take.

Non mirrored positions

For non-mirrored positions I get the following results:

10 433 442 532 541 622 631
433 P P P P P P
442 P P P P P P
532 P P P P P P
541 P P P P P P
622 T T T T T T
631 P P P P P P
11 443 533 542 551 632 641
443 P P P P T P
533 P T T P T T/P
542 P P P P P P
551 T T T P T T
632 P P P P T/P P
641 P P P P P P
12 444 543 552 633 642 651
444 T T T T T T
543 P T P T T T
552 T T T T T T
633 T T T T T T
642 P T P T T T
651 P T P T T P

Some conclusions:

  • All positions with a pipcount of 9 or less are a redouble/drop.
  • All positions with a pipcount of 13 or more are a redouble and a take.
  • Besides 622 on the rollers side all positions with 10 pips are a redouble/pass.
  • Most positions with 11 pips are a redouble/pass.
  • Most positions with 12 pips are a redouble/take.
Tagged with: •
Mai 24

3 vs 3 (three on ace)

By ace Backgammon, Bearoffs No Comments »

Three opponent checkers on the acepoint

We start with three similar positions and a bad distribution for the roller (441, 551, 661):

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  '  ' 2O  '  ' 1O |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 9

Position ID: BwAAEAMAAAAAAA Match ID: UQngAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.541 (Money: +0.541)
0.771 0.000 0.000 – 0.229 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.000
2. Double, take +1.095 +0.095
3. No double +0.598 -0.402
Proper cube action: Redouble, pass


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  ' 2O  '  '  ' 1O |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 11

Position ID: BwAAEAYAAAAAAA Match ID: UQngAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.265 (Money: +0.265)
0.632 0.000 0.000 – 0.368 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.422
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.578
3. No double +0.333 -0.089
Proper cube action: Redouble, take


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 2O  '  '  '  ' 1O |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 13

Position ID: BwAAEAwAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0.118
0.441 0.000 0.000 – 0.559 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double -0.062
2. Double, pass +1.000 +1.062
3. Double, take -0.594 -0.532
Proper cube action: No redouble, beaver (33.4%)


In the next three positions there is no checker on greens acepoint (632, 552, 652):

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O  '  ' 1O 1O  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 11

Position ID: BwAAoAgAAAAAAA Match ID: UQngAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.386 (Money: +0.386)
0.693 0.000 0.000 – 0.307 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.723
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.277
3. No double +0.485 -0.238
Proper cube action: Redouble, take


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  ' 2O  '  ' 1O  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 12

Position ID: BwAAIAYAAAAAAA Match ID: UQngAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.163 (Money: +0.163)
0.582 0.000 0.000 – 0.418 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.283
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.717
3. Double, take +0.190 -0.093
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (11.5%)


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O 1O  '  ' 1O  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 13

Position ID: BwAAIAoAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.059
0.529 0.000 0.000 – 0.471 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.178
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.822
3. Double, take -0.085 -0.263
Proper cube action: No redouble, beaver (24.3%)

Another three positions where the lowest checker is on the 3-point (333, 346, 355)

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  '  '  ' 3O  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 9

Position ID: BwAAwAEAAAAAAA Match ID: UQngAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.507 (Money: +0.507)
0.753 0.000 0.000 – 0.247 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.000
2. Double, take +1.034 +0.034
3. No double +0.615 -0.385
Proper cube action: Redouble, pass


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 | 1O  ' 1O 1O  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 13

Position ID: BwAAQAkAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.148
0.574 0.000 0.000 – 0.426 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.239
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.761
3. Double, take +0.023 -0.216
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (22.1%)


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  ' 2O  ' 1O  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 13

Position ID: BwAAQAYAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.049
0.524 0.000 0.000 – 0.476 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.128
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.872
3. Double, take -0.129 -0.257
Proper cube action: No redouble, beaver (22.8%)

Last but not least two even worse positions (444, 445):

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  '  ' 3O  '  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 12

Position ID: BwAAgAMAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.117
0.559 0.000 0.000 – 0.441 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.228
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.772
3. Double, take +0.035 -0.193
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (20.0%)


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' |   |  '  '  '  '  ' 3X |
|                   |   |                   |
|                   |   |                   |
|  '  '  '  '  '  ' | 2 |  ' 1O 2O  '  '  ' |
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: gnubg 3, ace 13

Position ID: BwAAgAUAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ace doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.091
0.546 0.000 0.000 – 0.454 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.190
2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.810
3. Double, take -0.059 -0.249
Proper cube action: No redouble, beaver (23.5%)
10 CL

 ND

 NR

 D/R
433 0.486 0.581 0.593 0.949
442 0.508 0.603 0.615 0.992
532 0.553 0.617 0.621 1.103
541 0.554 0.618 0.622 1.105
622 0.383 0.448 0.477 0.712
631 0.558 0.633 0.645 1.093
11 CL

 ND

 NR

 D/RD
443 0.354 0.429 0.475 0.617
533 0.340 0.351 0.408 0.573
542 0.420 0.504 0.530 0.797
551 0.265 0.268 0.330 0.413
632 0.386 0.441 0.480 0.703
641 0.392 0.437 0.486 0.689
12 CL

 ND

 NRD

 D/RD
444 0.117 0.128 0.228 0.035
543 0.293 0.335 0.399 0.470
552 0.163 0.276 0.207 0.197
633 0.202 0.141 0.256 0.174
642 0.291 0.335 0.409 0.439
651 0.256 0.249 0.338 0.338
Legend
CL: cubeless
ND: no double
NR: no redouble
D: double
RD: redouble
Green:
 redouble/take
Orange:
 initial double/take
Red:
 redouble/pass


Some conclusions

  • All positions with 9 or less pips (6 behind) are a redouble/pass.
  • Three positions with 10 pips (7 behind) are a redouble/pass (433, 442 and 622 are redouble/take).
  • All positions with 11 pips (8 behind) are a redouble/take.
  • Most positions with 12 pip (9 behind) are a redouble/take (552 and 633 are initial doubles, 444 is no double).
  • Most positions with 13 or more pips (10 behind) are a no double/beaver (643 is no double/take).
Tagged with: •
Mai 24

2 vs 2 Checkers

By ace Backgammon, Bearoffs No Comments »

Two vs. two checkers

The usage of this table is pretty easy. Search for the position of your checkers at very left column and for your opponents checkers at the top. The cell number itself will give you the cubeless winning probablity. For the colors take a look at the caption below.

11

21

 31 41 22 32 51

42

 52 33

43*

 61 53 62 44 63

54

 64 55

65

 66
11/21 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
31 94,4 94,8 95,5 96,0 96,1 96,4 97,1 97,4 97,7 97,8 98,0 98,3 98,5 98,8 99,1 99,4
41 80,6 81,6 84,3 86,0 86,5 87,6 89,7 90,8 91,9 92,4 93,0 94,1 94,6 95,7 96,8 97,8
22 72,2 73,8 77,6 79,9 80,7 82,3 85,3 86,9 88,4 89,2 90,0 91,5 92,3 93,8 95,4 96,9
32 69,4 71,1 75,4 77,9 78,8 80.5 83,9 85,6 87,3 88,1 89,0 90,7 91,5 93,2 94,9 96,6
51/42 63,9 65,9 70,9 73,9 74,9 76,9 80,9 82,9 85,0 86,0 87,0 89,0 90,0 92,0 94,0 96,0
52 52,8 55,4 61,9 65,8 67,1 69,7 74,9 77,5 80,1 81,4 82,8 85,4 86,7 89,3 91,9 94,5
33/43* 47,2 50,2 57,5 61,9 63,3 66,3 72,1 75,1 78,0 79,5 80,9 83,9 85,3 88,3 91,2 94,1
61 41,7 44,9 52,9 57,8 59,4 62,6 69,1 72,3 75,5 77,1 78,7 82,0 83,6 86,8 90,1 93,3
53 38,9 42,2 50,5 55,5 57,2 60,5 67,2 70,5 73,8 75,5 77,2 80,5 82,2 85,5 88,9 92,4
62 36,1 39,6 48,3 53,5 55,3 58,7 65,7 69,2 72,7 74,4 76,2 79,6 81,4 84,9 88,5 92,1
44 30,6 34,3 43,8 49,4 51,3 55,1 62,6 66,4 70,2 72,1 79,6 77,7 79,7 83,5 87,3 91,2
63/54 27,8 31,6 41,2 46,8 48,7 52,7 60,4 64,2 68,1 70,0 71,9 75,8 77,8 81,7 85,7 89,8
64 22,2 26,1 36,0 41,8 43,8 47,7 55,6 59,5 63,4 65,5 67,4 71,4 73,4 77,6 82,0 86,5
55/65 16,7 20,8 31,3 36,3 39,7 43,8 52,2 56,4 60,6 62,7 64,8 69,0 71,3 75,8 80,0 85,3
66 11,1 14,8 24,2 29,8 31,6 35,4 42,9 46,5 50,3 52,4 54,3 58,1 60,4 64,9 69,7 75,4
Explanation
Red: No Double/Beaver
Green: Double/Take
Orange: Double/Take (though less than25% cubeless)
White: Double/Pass

* 43 vs 33/43 is a small take, because of the possibility of rolling 21 twice in a row.

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Mai 22

“Googlen” macht verdächtig

By ace Pol-IT No Comments »

 Heute schon "gegoogelt?" Vorsicht, schon morgen kann unliebsamer Besuch vor der Haustür stehen! Bei der am 9. Mai 2007 durchgführten bundesweiten Razzia in etwa 40 Wohnungen und Büros von G-8 Gegnern kam auch jemand unter die Räder, der bei Google offensichtlich die falschen Suchbegriffe eingegeben hatte.

 Wie taz und telepolis berichten, wurde einem Beschuldigten vorgeworfen, an dem im März verübten Brandanschlag auf die Firma Dussmann beteiligt gewesen zu sein. Wie kamen die ermittelnden Beamten darauf?

 Sie stellten mittels einer "Internetüberwachung"  fest, daß der Beschuldigte im Internet nach eben dieser Firma Dussmann recherchiert hatte. Was genau eine "Internetüberwachung" sei, wollte das BKA nicht weiter erläutern.

 Dussmann ist übrigens eine der größten Buchhandlungen Berlins (6.700 m2 auf fünf Etagen) mit einem riesigen Online-Angebot. Da kann man ja echt froh sein, daß noch keine Brandanschläge auf Gebäude von amazon oder ebay verübt wurden. Nicht auszudenken, wiviele treue Staatsbürger dann zu Unrecht verdächtig wären.

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